Living with Wellington's fearful secret

Wellington CBD from Mount Victoria. Photograph: wikicommons

THE capital of New Zealand straddles a violent crack in the earth's crust that is overdue for a seismic shift. Hundreds of buildings in Wellington's central business district could be destroyed, and thousands may die. So how do residents live with the risks?

It could happen anytime night or day. As the city fills with workers between eight and nine in the morning, during a cafe-lunch, or when the children have been tucked up in bed, the lights are out but the night clubs are still throbbing.

And there will probably be no warning. In the last major shake to hit the capital, on 23rd January 1855, houses were lifted from their foundations with the first shock, timber and brick buildings collapsed, and four-fifths of the chimneys in Wellington smashed to the ground.

At the time Wellington had a population of just 6000, but the next one, with upwards of 400,000 people living and working in the Wellington region, could be catastrophic.

I put a lot of faith in hope that myself and my family are not in the wrong place, should the 'big one' strike.

Roads will be blocked, outside aid will be unable to get through as landslides isolate the city, water will be contaminated and gas fires will erupt across the city. The population will be forced to hunt for survivors on foot and look after friends and family on their own without hospitals.

And this scenario is based only on a 7.6 scale quake. The 1855 event was the most powerful earthquake recorded in NZ history hitting 8.2 on the Richter scale.

Survival habits
Sarah Lee, a a British arrival 12 years ago and now in Wellington, says she thinks about the risks, usually, when reminded by an article or TV program. "There are so many different possible scenarios that I feel quite helpless. I put a lot of faith in hope that myself and my family are not in the wrong place, should the 'big one' strike."

That doesn't mean Lee has done nothing to help survive a potential disaster. The Ministry of Civil Defence and Emergency Management recommends householders hoard enough food and water for at least three days, and collect an emergency kit in case they are evacuated.

"We are basically prepared, having fresh water stored, spare food, torch, gas for BBQ," says Lee.

"However, we don't have an emergency pack stored and ready to walk with should we need to leave our home. There are a number of extra things that I periodically think, 'I really ought to get,' such as batteries for a transistor radio, and as we're not diligent about storing our emergency food away from the kitchen cupboard; our supplies do run dangerously low at times," she adds.

Juli Ryan, an expat from the US, is worried the car will run out of fuel and she will be unable to escape an after-shock tsunami, "We have a civil defense kit, which is basically made up of our camping supplies, but at the moment, we need spare batteries, and I always nag my husband if he lets the petrol get too low in the car."

A wing and a prayer
Many Wellingtonians have prepared but worry they fall short of the full recommendations set out by the Civil Defence ministry; others take the risk more fatalistically.

Julien Thomas, a 15 year expat originally from Manchester, says he has done nothing to prepare and says the longer you live here the more remote it seems. "I hardly every think about it. We get reminded about it every now and then from the TV ads. People that have lived with it all their lives are probably less prepared. After decades without 'The big one', they think it will never happen. It feels the same for me I suppose after 15 years."

A name that cannot be spoken
Residents of the region talk of 'The Big One' in reverent tones almost like the unmentionable name of Voldermolt in Harry Potter. All hope it will never come, but scientists say it is overdue.

"The earthquake thing is unsettling at first but you make an informed decision about the risks you're taking. 'The Big One' is due sometime soon - whenever that might be. You can't lead life wondering when the next disaster is going to strike," says Julie Treanor, an ex-British domestic-executive near Upper Hutt.

If you want to live somewhere free of earthquake risk then New Zealand is a place to avoid

You will hear it again and again, but "Life's too short. If it happens we'll worry about it then," says Treanor.

And, "There are many more likely threats to life, such as tripping down the stairs, slipping in the bathroom and being in a cr accident that can happen anywhere," explains Lee.

This may be true anecdotally, but the UNISDR's (United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction)Mortality Risk Index (MRI) puts NZ alongside countries like Liberia, Malawi and Panama for risk per capita.

Being on top of the Pacific ring of fire and centred on one of the world's potentially most explosive volcanoes (Lake Taupo), NZ rates a five on the index give Kiwis a medium rating for death from sudden onset natural disaster. And it is not higher only because of NZ's small population.

A matter of time and pressure
Yet one thing most migrants to Wellington agree upon. Whether prepared themselves or not, they believe potential residents should be made aware of the risks.

"We need to be educated on the ramifications," says Thomas. "I think most immigrants find the education and prepare."

Earthquake and the threat of geological disaster is ever present in New Zealand. If you live here, or if you are thinking of moving here, be aware the islands are perched between two massive tectonic plates constantly battling and grinding, always threatening to bury you beneath concrete, ash or lava.

Ultimately, "If you want to live somewhere free of earthquake risk then New Zealand is a place to avoid," says Treanor.

Comments

[Sarah]

Thanks for this extremely good article William. It's forced me to restock and rethink my emergency supplies! I need constant reminding - but also hate it. We really would be living in paradise, if it weren't for the geological threats - but then - perhaps the risks make it all the more precious?

[lavenderbongo]

This is a really interesting, thought provoking post. We knew all about the risks before we moved but were still surprised that we were expected to have an emergency kit in the house. I guess Wellington is like Naples and San Francisco. Its a beautiful place where people are willing to take a gamble on living with the threat of natural disaster.

[Juli Ryan]

To clarify, I want to have petrol in the car so that we have a chance of escaping a tsunami (we live on a coastal plain in a rural area outside Wellington). I disagree with Thomas about people who have lived with the threat of earthquakes all their lives being less prepared. I think it just depends on what kind of person you are. I'm a worrywart. After 13 years of living in earthquake-prone regions, preparedness is still something I take seriously.

[Sarah]

Not that it's relevant - but I'm not a recent British arrival - I've been here 12 year's! If anything I'm getting more worried, rather than complacent - as having lived with talk of the 'big one' for so long makes me think - phew - we've been so lucky all these years - but how long will our luck last for! Plus I've seen a lot more official campaigns, in recent years, urging the public to be prepared... which makes me think, 'If they are getting worried, there must be due cause'.

[William Knight]

Sarah,

Oops, sorry, there's journalistic assumption at work... I'll have to make that change. (the beauty of the web, I guess).

[Domestic Executive]

Great pointer - I'm going to make sure the petrol stock in the barn is topped up after all. We usually only use it during mowing/strimming but it's a good idea to keep a stock in case! You never know.

[Ethan Tucker]

It's worth taking new Wellingtonians on the tour of Parliament so they can see the rubber foundations put in to protect the buildings from a big shock. Pretty impressive, and as I understand it, the techniques used in the construction are widely referenced in engineering circles overseas.

[William Knight]

Thanks Ethan,

also, it's worth visiting the rubber foundations at Te Papa museum.

I must admit to never having visited the Beehive. It's one for a rainy day I guess.